30. mars 2022, kl. -
A crisis is more than a big emergency. It is when the pace and scale of adverse events threaten to overwhelm decision-makers (the rubber levers test).
National preparation helps prevent unexpected sudden impact shocks becoming crises. But slow burn crises need to be detected early, and the likely inadequacy of current policy anticipated, so that a change of direction can be made in time. That warning function involves both impartial analysis and policy analysis working together to anticipate and provide government with strategic notice of impending trouble, including when current policy looks likely to fail. The warning has to anticipate the likely Impact of events and of policy countries-measures that may have to be taken in terms of Impact, Extent and Duration (IED) of disruption to society and the economy.